Monday, June 11, 2012

NBA Finals 2012 Preview

On Tuesday night the Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Miami Heat in game 1 of the NBA Finals.  The highly anticipated matchup between the two teams will feature several of the NBA's brightest stars, including up to 6 potential members of this summer's US olympic basketball roster.  Both squads were widely considered the preseason favorites to reach the Finals, and the series between the two should be a memorable one.  In order to decide what team has the edge heading into the Finals, I decided to examine a position by position comparison between the two teams.

Point Guard:

  • OKC:  Russell Westbrook is arguably the most athletic point guard of all time, and among the best at the position in today's NBA.  The UCLA product has an unguardable midrange game, and can create a shot for himself whenever he chooses.  If Westbrook is knocking down his jump shots, driving lanes to the basket will open up for him, and he will become impossible to stop offensively.  This past season the 23 year old Westbrook, who was named an all-star for the second time in his young career, averaged over 23 points per game, 5 assists per game and nearly 5 rebounds per game.  Westbrook is a terror in transition, using his incredible quickness and anticipation to take away passing lanes defensively and force turnovers leading to easy fast break points for the youthful Thunder.  Westbrook's oft-maligned decision making has improved a great deal this season, although he can be a bit careless with the ball.  Against the Heat, the only team in the league that can match the Thunder in transition, Westbrook and the Thunder have to limit their turnovers.  After leading the league in turnovers in the regular season, the Thunder has been among the best teams at taking care of the ball in the playoffs.
  • Miami: Mario Chalmers has big game experience, having started at point guard for the Heat last season in the team's Finals appearance, and having won a national championship at the University of Kansas in 2008.  Chalmers is most well known for draining a three pointer with 2.1 seconds left in regulation to send the national championship game to overtime, where his team prevailed.  Chalmers has an inconsistent jump shot, and prone to making questionable plays.  If he is able to space the floor by knocking down open three point shots it will be crucial for a Heat team which lacks many viable three point shooters.  Chalmers plays hard defensively and is good at forcing turnovers, which may prove to be the deciding factor in the series.
  • The Verdict: The Thunder clearly have a huge advantage at point guard, as Westbrook is one of the NBA's top players.
Shooting Guard:

  • OKC:  Thabo Sefolosha, a native of Switzerland, has carved out a niche for himself on the Thunder as a role player who understands his duty and fulfills it exceedingly well.   Sefolosha is an elite perimeter defender, who used his massive wingspan and lateral quickness to slow down Tony Parker in the Western Conference Finals.   Sefolosha also brings to the table excellent three point shooting, having made almost 44% of his three point field goal attempts this past season.  Sefolosha will be tasked with stopping Dwyane Wade in the Finals, likely his most difficult assignment to date.
  • Miami:  Dwyane Wade is a future hall of famer with credentials that can be matched by only a handful of players in the world.  Wade, an 8-time all-star, all-star mvp, former scoring champion, and Olympic gold medalist, was the NBA Finals MVP in 2006, when he put together one of the greatest Finals performances of all time in leading the Heat to the franchise's first NBA title.  Wade is excellent penetrating to the basket, and his ability to finish near the rim and absorb contact are among his greatest skills.  He has a great midrange game and court vision.  In transition Wade combines with Lebron James to form arguably the most feared fast break duo in NBA history.  Wade's brilliance is not limited to the offensive half of the court, as he is also one of the league's top perimeter defenders, and unquestionably one of the greatest shot blockers of all time at the guard position.
  • The Verdict: Few Shooting Guards in NBA history would have an advantage over Wade.  Heat win in a cakewalk.
Small Forward:

  • OKC: Kevin Durant has matured into one of the top two players in the NBA.  The three time defending scoring champion's ability to put the ball in the rim is unrivaled.  Durant uses his beautiful shooting stroke, limitless range, innate ability to put up a shot at any time, athleticism and soft touch around the basket to score in every way possible.  Durant is widely considered to be the consummate teammate, an unselfish leader who truly cares about his teammates and is concerned with only winning.  Durant's development of a complete game in the past two seasons has elevated his team to one of the league's top title contenders.  Durant led his team in rebounding this past season, averaged a career high 3.5 assists per game and greatly improved his ability to create easy shots for his teammates and was one of only 13 players to average over 1 steal and 1 block per game in the regular season.  Additionally, Durant made significant strides as a defender, using his length to contest shots, and improving his defense on pick and rolls.  This season Durant has showed off his killer instinct by knocking down several clutch shots late in games.  In a December game against Dallas Durant knocked down a buzzer beating three pointer to win the game.  He made a game winner with 4 seconds left in game 1 of OKC's first round series against Dallas, followed that up with a game winning 3 with 15 seconds left in game 4 of the semifinals against the Lakers, and finally scored 18 points in the 4th quarter of game 4 of the conference finals against the Spurs.  Durant is cementing his reputation as one of the league's most clutch players, and at only 23 years old it is remarkable that he has already led his team to the NBA's biggest stage.
  • Miami: Lebron James is considered by many to be the best basketball player in the world.  His elite skills in almost every facet of the game, and ability to affect the game in so many different ways is what sets him apart from every one else on the planet.  The three time league MVP is a former scoring champion and one of the league's top scorers.  His combination of strength, size and quickness is unparalleled and makes him unstoppable in transition and when he attacks the basket.  James' court vision and passing ability for a player of his height is matched by only Magic Johnson in NBA history.  James' athleticism makes him one of the best rebounding small forwards in the league.  Finally, Lebron is arguably the best defender in the league as demonstrated by his 4 consecutive inclusions on the NBA's All-Defensive First Team.  James is a shutdown perimeter defender, great help defender, high basketball IQ, and a breathtaking penchant for performing chase down blocks.  James' one flaw is his sometimes exaggerated shrinking from big moments.  He has been chastised by the public for playing uncharacteristically poorly in the NBA Finals last year, and for often passing up shots late in games.  James made the first step towards improving his reputation in big moments by scoring 45 points in a must win game 6 in the Conference Finals against the Celtics.  No player has more at stake in these finals than James, who desperately wants to win a title to cement his legacy as an all-time great.
  • Verdict: Evenly matched.  This matchup features the top 2 players in the world both of whom are eager to win a first championship.
Power Forward:
  • OKC: Serge Ibaka is an athletic specimen who possesses a game altering defensive presence.  Ibaka led the league in blocks by a wide margin, averaging 3.6 per game.  If the opposition has a big who can stretch the floor with his shooting, Ibaka is often forced out to the perimeter negating his ability to block shots. Ibaka is one of the Thunder's top mid range shooters, as demonstrated by his 11-11 shooting performance in game 4 of the Conference Finals against the Spurs.  Ibaka's size and athleticism makes him very difficult to slow down when he rolls to the basket off pick and rolls with Westbrook or James Harden.  
  • Miami: Chris Bosh is one of the league's top shooting big men, making him extremely effective in pick and pop situations.  Bosh is the type of big man who can spread the floor and force Ibaka to drift to the perimeter on defense, opening up driving lanes for Wade and Lebron.  Bosh is a 7-time all-star, however his health going into the series is in question.  Bosh suffered an abdominal strain early in the Heat's conference seminal series against Indiana, and was able to play in the Heat's final three games of their series against Boston.  If Bosh is able to start for the Heat it will provide them with a huge boost and prove crucial in matching up with Ibaka.
  • Verdict: When healthy Bosh is the superior player.
Center:
  • OKC: Kendrick Perkins is an intimidating low post presence and not shy away from contact with James and Wade when they slash toward the basket.  At 27 years old, Perkins is the oldest player in the Thunder's starting lineup and has championship experience from his days in Boston.  If Perkins is stationed near the basket he will make life difficult for the Heat, however, if the Heat are able to draw him further from the basket in pick and roll situations he will struggle.  Low post scoring is not one of his strengths, too put it kindly.
  • Miami: Udonis Haslem is often called the heart and soul of the Miami Heat.  He plays with intensity, defends hard and inspires his teammates.  Haslem is a good spot up shooter from midrange, and is able to score on post ups, although Perkins will likely be able to limit his interior scoring opportunities.  Haslem's ability to shoot may force Perkins to try to guard pick and rolls, which he struggled to do in the conference finals.
  • Verdict: Perkins defensive presence gives the Thunder a slight edge.
Bench:
  • OKC: Few teams can match OKC's depth and star power off the bench. James Harden is the NBA's reigning 6th man of the year and is an all-star caliber player.  Harden is a very good three point shooter and excels at penetrating to the basket and finishing at the rim.  Harden is a great playmaker and often serves as the Thunder's primary ball handler late in games.  His unselfishness and willingness to serve as the leader of the Thunder's second unit provides the team with a huge advantage.  Nick Collison is another big man who plays solid defense and can finish at the rim.  He and Durant are the only players remaining from the Thunder's days in Seattle as the Supersonics.  Derek Fisher provides the Thunder with veteran leadership, experience and fearlessness late in games.  Daequan Cook is a three point shooting specialist who can score in spurts and energize the Thunder.
  • Miami: The Heat bring Shane Battier off the bench to provide them with quality defense and the potential to spread the floor by converting on three point shots, although he is no longer the player he once was.  Mike Miller is a top tier three point shooter and a good rebounder, although he struggles to stay healthy.  Joel Anthony provides the Heat with a physical interior presence defensively, but struggles to do anything offensively.
  • Verdict: James Harden provides OKC with a huge advantage off the bench and the Thunder clearly has superior depth.

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